Soutien, relance, déficits: ce qu’il faudrait pour un retour de l’inflation.

Après les 900 milliards de Trump, les 1900 milliards de dollars du début d’année, Biden remet sur la table une proposition « d’investissement » public pouvant aller jusqu’à 3000 milliards de dollars. Dans le même temps, l’OCDE prévoit une croissance américaine de 6,5% pour les États-Unis en 2021, du jamais vu depuis 37 ans. En conséquence, les inquiétudes inflationnistes demeurent. Il est alors important de distinguer l’inflation structurelle de l’inflation conjoncturelle.

Le problème de l’inflation

Inflation perdue…

L’inflation aux États-Unis ne cesse de diminuer depuis les années 1980 et s’établit durablement depuis 10 sous les 2% environ. On parle de désinflation. Cette tendance est commune à beaucoup de pays et s’accompagne globalement d’une diminution de la croissance.

Le problème de l’emploi

Comme le montre le graphique ci-dessus, on assiste d’une part depuis quelques années à une stagnation globale du profit des entreprises aux États-Unis. D’autre part, le coût du travail tend à augmenter (les contributions sociales ont doublé depuis 2000). De toutes évidences, on assiste à un phénomène de mise sous tension du profit des entreprises et de stagnation plus forte des salaires net des salariés. À long terme, une inflation structurelle est permise si (1) les profits des entreprises progressent et (2) la hausse des salaires suit positivement l’inflation.

Actuellement, le maintien des contributions salariales et la tension supplémentaire exercée sur les profits (hausse des taxes, de l’endettement et reprise encore incomplète de l’activité) limite fortement le facteur inflationniste.

Le problème de l’épargne, de l’endettement et des impôts

Depuis 2000, l’utilisation de la monnaie a diminué de 50% tandis que le taux d’épargne a été multiplié par plus de 5, ce qui est considérable. Ces chiffres sont la conséquence directe d’une hausse continue de l’endettement (nécessitant des politiques interventionnistes) et de la pression fiscale. La hausse du taux d’épargne est bien le reflet d’une mise sous tension croissante de la demande.

C’est tout le paradoxe de notre époque. Les politiques visant théoriquement à relancer la demande (hausse de la dette publique, de la création monétaire, baisse des taux) ne dont que statistiquement la réduire. Nous avons franchi en 2000 un point d’inefficience chronique et graduelle [Voir livre sur l’or].

Ce qu’il faudrait pour un retour de l’inflation

Choc d’inflation structurelle

 

On entend ici par inflation structurelle une inflation durable influencée par des grandes tendances économiques (vélocité, épargne, profits et salaires, etc.). Il est indéniable qu’il arrivera nécessairement un moment où les grands comportements économiques observés jusqu’alors changeront. Ce pourrait être progressivement le cas avant la fin de cette décennie. Un retour durable de l’inflation ne serait possible que dans certains cas de figure :

  • Un déblocage de la situation sur les profits des entreprises avec une forte croissance. Ce scénario est déjà mis à mal aux États-Unis par la hausse des impôts sur les sociétés de 21% à 28%.
  • Un déblocage sur la demande avec une baisse de l’endettement et de la pression fiscale. Là encore, ce n’est pas le cas.
  • Un déblocage public. Statistiquement, il y a une forte corrélation entre dette publique, pression fiscale et chômage. Une inflation durable n’est possible que si le chômage est faible et les revenus supplémentaires dus à l’inflation sont librement distribués sans limitation gouvernementale. Ce qui est inflationniste dans l’Histoire, c’est la chute de confiance envers les gouvernements.
  • Un déblocage démographique. À très long terme, la démographie est déflationniste (baisse du nombre d’acheteurs et hausse des quantités d’offertes). La tendance démographique en Occident limite une situation inflationniste comme durant les Trente Glorieuses.

Choc d’inflation conjoncturelle

 

On entend par inflation conjoncturelle une inflation plutôt courte ou brutale du fait de phénomènes économiques plutôt éphémères (rebond, récession, pénuries, etc.). Il faut ainsi distinguer deux types d’inflations :

1/L’inflation de demande. L’impossibilité pour l’offre de répondre rapidement à une hausse soudaine de la demande serait très probablement un facteur inflationniste. Ce serait finalement le principal risque derrière les milliers de milliards de dollars aux États-Unis. La croissance attendue est de 5,6% en 2021, ce qui est très important. Mais si l’on retire un effet de base avec la crise du COVID, le risque inflationniste est encore limité de 21%[1].

2/L’inflation d’offre. Il s’agit ici d’une inflation par les coûts du fait de pénuries. Nous sommes encore loin des pénuries d’emploi. Le risque est plutôt celui des pénuries de matières premières ou de hausse des coûts du fait de la forte progression de l’endettement privé. C’est une inflation qui peut devenir une réalité dans certains secteurs au regard de la hausse continue de la valorisation des matières premières. Sa généralisation est cependant moins certaine.

Par ailleurs, les taux réels ont globalement tendance à suivre la croissance. Une forte hausse de la croissance impliquera systématiquement une hausse des taux et/ou une chute de l’inflation. Ces distorsions taux réels/croissance sont graduellement plus fortes depuis 20 ans, ce qui est dangereux à terme pour nos économies.

 

En définitive, nous vivons à long terme dans des économies désinflationnistes. Cette situation est particulièrement prononcée depuis 20 ans, résultat de grandes tendances économiques en réaction à la hausse des dettes et de la masse monétaire. Les tensions qui pèsent sur l’offre et la demande termineront nécessairement par une plus forte volatilité des prix à long terme. Néanmoins, les facteurs d’inflation structurelle restent encore fortement ancrés, ce qui limite les risques d’une hausse intense de l’inflation. La principale menace serait alors plus celle d’une inflation de conjoncture.

[1] Une croissance de 5,6% en 2021 représente 1203Mds$. Il manque par effet de base 253Mds$ pour rattraper fin 2020 les niveaux de PIB d’avant crise, soit 21% de la croissance en volumes. 

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